World Cup 2026 Round of 16: Spain vs Belgium

Posted on July 10, 2026 by SoccerPunter

Friday, July 10, 2026 · Kick-off 19:00 GMT · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Spain top Group H with a perfect group-stage record of two wins and a draw, conceding nothing along the way. They’ve beaten Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Austria 3-0, edged Uruguay 1-0, and held Cape Verde Islands scoreless — five clean sheets across their last five matches overall, with Mikel Oyarzabal leading the scoring and Marc Cucurella topping the assist chart.

Belgium finished first in Group G unbeaten, though with a more mixed profile: two draws (against Iran and Egypt) sandwiched around wins over Senegal and a 5-1 romp against New Zealand, plus a 4-1 win against the United States. Romelu Lukaku remains their focal point up front, with Leandro Trossard supplying from midfield.

Head-to-head: This fixture has been one-sided historically — Spain have won all seven of their previous meetings with Belgium, with an aggregate score of 20-2. That run stretches back through World Cup and Euro qualifiers in the 2000s to a pair of 2015-16 friendlies, all won by La Roja.

Live odds: bet365 has Spain firm favorites at 1.615, with the draw at 4.00 and Belgium win at 5.50 — odds that reflect both Spain’s flawless group form and that lopsided head-to-head record.

The story: Belgium will need to break a run of history to progress here — no team has fewer answers for Spain than they have. But their own group form, unbeaten through three games, suggests they won’t be pushovers even as clear underdogs. For Spain, five defensive shutouts (in seven world Cup matches) and a fully attacking group stage make them the team to beat heading into the knockout rounds.

World Cup Prediction: Spain to win, most likely 2-0 or 2-1.

Their case is strong on paper: a perfect group stage, five clean sheets in a row, and a 7-0 head-to-head record against Belgium spanning two decades. The market agrees — Spain at -153 implies they’re the clear favorite, and nothing in Belgium’s profile (two draws in the group, leaning on Lukaku individually rather than a settled attacking system) suggests they’ve solved the puzzle Spain typically poses.

The one caveat: Belgium haven’t lost a game yet either, and knockout football has a habit of humbling “form” favorites. If Lukaku gets an early sight of goal and Belgium sit in rather than chase the game, it could stay tighter than the history suggests. But on balance — Spain, comfortably.