2026 World Cup: Three Group Winner Favorites to Lay in North America

Posted on April 13, 2026 by SoccerPunter

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is fast approaching, and some of the teams headed to North America will be more optimistic about dominating throughout the group stage than others. Spain head across the Atlantic as the reigning European Champions and the favorites with online betting sites to claim the biggest prize in the game for the second time, and having been drawn into a relatively simple-looking Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde, it’s clear to see why.

Popular new outlet Lucky Rebel lists Luis de la Fuente’s La Roja as the 9/2 favorite to leave MetLife Stadium on July 19th as champions, as well as making them a mightily short 1/5 to win their group. Reigning champions Argentina also find themselves well-positioned. They topped the South American qualifying section, and the trio of Austria, Algeria, and Jordan isn’t expected to stop them from romping to top spot in Group J.

But while those two are certainly confident of making a blistering start to the World Cup, others will be looking toward the curtain-raising date of June 11th with anxiety. So, which of the current group winner favorites are teams that should be avoided this summer? Let’s take a look.

France

Didier Deschamps’ France have reached each of the last two World Cup finals, and they will be aiming to become just the third team in history to reach three straight. Back in 2018, they were head and shoulders clear of their competition, dominating before downing Croatia 4-2 in Moscow. Four years later, they thrilled en route to the final once again before ultimately falling short against Argentina, losing a heartbreaking penalty shootout despite a blistering hat trick from Kylian Mbappe.

Fast forward to 2026, and Les Bleus are considered contenders once again, but there are a few reasons to be apprehensive. Firstly, France were incredibly disappointing at UEFA Euro 2024 18 months ago. They scored just one goal from open play throughout the entire tournament, somehow progressing to the semifinals via the assistance of own goals, penalties, and goalless draws. In qualifying for the World Cup, they struggled against lowly Iceland, drawing 2-2 in Reykjavík and having to rely on a controversial late VAR decision to secure a 2-1 win in Paris.

At the World Cup, none of the favorites have a more difficult group to navigate than Les Bleus. They will have to face a reborn Norway side in Group I, arguably the form team in European qualifying. The relentless Erling Haaland has blasted 16 goals in just eight games, including braces home and away in dominant victories against four-time world champions Italy.

If that wasn’t bad enough, newly minted African Champions Senegal are also in Group I, and the Lions of Teranga have history against Les Bleus. The two nations met back in 2002 when France were defending champions and Senegal were tournament debutants. And shockingly, it was the upstarts who emerged victorious, winning 1-0 against Zinedine Zidane and Co. in Seoul. Tread carefully when backing the French to top Group I in North America.

USA

Hosting the World Cup comes with its perks. Not only do hosts automatically qualify for the tournament, but they also find themselves positioned in pot one alongside the big boys, meaning that they will then go on to secure a favorable group stage draw. That is exactly what has happened with the United States, as well as their co-hosting partners Mexico and Canada. However, it’s the Stars and Stripes who are the favorites that we would be apprehensive to back to win their group.

The Americans don’t necessarily have a stacked trio of opponents waiting for them as the aforementioned France does. However, their form over the last few years under former PSG manager Mauricio Pochettino has been somewhat suspect. The US has hosted both the Copa America and the Concacaf Gold Cup in the last 18 months. In the former, they were dumped out in the group stage. In the latter, they were thoroughly outclassed by Mexico in the final despite being on home turf.

That could spell a bad omen heading into 2026. Neither Paraguay nor Australia will be intimidated by an American team, despite having a raucous home crowd at their back. Add to that the fact that Turkey could also find themselves in Group C should they make it through their qualifying playoff, and the top spot in the group is by no means guaranteed. Far from it.

Germany

Germany are mighty 1/3 favorites to win Group E, but considering their recent form at the World Cup, we wouldn’t be lumping them on, especially at those odds. Die Mannschaft were memorably dumped out in the group stage back in 2018, falling victim to the vaunted Champion’s Curse as they lost to both Mexico and South Korea in Russia. Four years later, they suffered their second straight early exit after a stunning 2-1 defeat to Japan, coupled with a draw with Spain, sent them packing.

The Germans bounced back somewhat at Euro 2024, reaching the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champions Spain. However, their group stage opponents in North America are by no means pushovers. Ecuador is in the midst of a golden generation led by powerhouse Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo and PSG defender Willian Pacho. As well as that, Manchester United’s Amad Diallo and RB Leipzig’s Yan Diomande provide the Ivory Coast with buckets of attacking talent. Beating both of those en route to topping Group E won’t be an easy feat.