Review: I went extremely selective for yesterday's games. I guess I got an overall better performance than the previous set of matches.
However, it is a little disturbing the only favourite team bet that I bought turned out to be (a draw) wrong, while the underdog bets I got 3 out of 5 correct. I feel that it is very bad for a punter's betting performance to get favourite team bets wrong, because their odds payout are for the most part quite low.
I notice a lot of typical punters seem misinformed about what good consistent performance is about. I come from many years of trading background. Traders, be it professional or retail, know a lot about risk managing, thanks to widespread education on this area.
A common recommended risk level is to risk no more than 2% of one's account on a set of trades at all time, even if one is a consistently profitable trader. If one doesn't risk big, one eliminates the possibility of a huge drawdown - being down 20-30% or more a month is never going to happen with real professional traders. Keeping one's account safe is what is important, not potential huge profit at the expense of taking huge risk. The thing is if one risks small, getting huge return like (20% to 100% a month) would not be possible, but then one's account will be kept fairly safe, drawdown will be small and manageable, getting net overall profits over months will be a possibility.
The lack of literature on this area in the sport betting field probably implies many punters might not know or care much about the importance/value of risk management.
You might get lucky and win big a few times with huge risk. But eventually a few huge losses from habitually taking huge risk will give you a huge drawdown or even threaten account destruction.
I recalled I was fairly conservative with my best month in June 2017. My biggest wins were made with 5K bets on high odds accumulated multiples. I could have easily hit 10M if I have betted 50K on those bets. Why should I? I do not want to risk getting 20-30% if I was wrong. And I could have been wrong since betting is extremely risky and results often unpredictable.
And the above sort of explains why I rarely risk big with 50K bets in punting here. I value capital preservation over profits at the expense of huge risk.
I recommend punters to check out risk managing skills that are commonly used in the trading field.
Every serious punter needs to understand the concept of 'risk of ruin' and its impact on their punting career. You want to survive in the betting for as long as you can, not lose it all after winning big a few times.
The Iran v Japan is so full of mind games. Historically, Japan has terrible records after 5,6 games winning streak. Recent Asian Cup matches had all Islamic countries pull off victories against the likes of Korea, Australia, and China. With Japan as the underdog in odds at 3.00+, it tricks bettors to consider Iran win or at least a draw.
Charting of Tipster Profit Per Round
Evolution of Tipster's Balance in Round #151
Astor's Rankings in Tipsters Competition Show-Hide