Macca
07-13-2017, 03:44 PM
Match Links: Predict (https://www.soccerpunter.com/competition/Brazil/Serie-A/bet_match_2419087_CR_Flamengo_vs_Grêmio_**_Porto_ Alegrense_2017-07-13) H2H (https://www.soccerpunter.com/soccer-statistics/Brazil/Serie-A-2017/head_to_head_statistics/all/318_CR_Flamengo/313_Gr%C3%AAmio_**_Porto_Alegrense) Odds (https://www.soccerpunter.com/soccer-statistics/Brazil/Serie-A-2017/livesoccerodds?match_id=2419087&home=CR+Flamengo&away=Gr%C3%AAmio+**+Porto+Alegrense&date=2017-07-13+22%3A30%3A00)
Flamengo are a very strong team at home, historically winning more than half of their games at home, as well as having very decent recent form. Gremio has only won 2 of the past 10 encounters of this fixture.
Probabilities and fair odds:
1=56% (1.79)
x=25% (4.00)
2=19% (5.26)
You can see there is a tiny amount of value in odds for the home to win, everything else is lacking value.
I'm going to try something different with this match. I calculate the overall goal count to be between 2 and 3 to a probability of 65%. This equates to odds of 1.54. I'm going to dutch the total goals market for 2 and 3. This will give me average odds of 1.96ish which is almost doubling the fair odds.
Good luck!
Flamengo are a very strong team at home, historically winning more than half of their games at home, as well as having very decent recent form. Gremio has only won 2 of the past 10 encounters of this fixture.
Probabilities and fair odds:
1=56% (1.79)
x=25% (4.00)
2=19% (5.26)
You can see there is a tiny amount of value in odds for the home to win, everything else is lacking value.
I'm going to try something different with this match. I calculate the overall goal count to be between 2 and 3 to a probability of 65%. This equates to odds of 1.54. I'm going to dutch the total goals market for 2 and 3. This will give me average odds of 1.96ish which is almost doubling the fair odds.
Good luck!