England vs Switzerland - Europe EC Qualification Predictions

[liam2wap]

Match Links: Predict (https://www.soccerpunter.com/competition/Europe/EC-Qualification/bet_match_1653345_England_vs_Switzerland_2015-09-08) H2H (https://www.soccerpunter.com/soccer-statistics/Europe/EC-Qualification-2016-France/head_to_head_statistics/all/774_England/2201_Switzerland) Odds (https://www.soccerpunter.com/soccer-statistics/Europe/EC-Qualification-2016-France/livesoccerodds?match_id=1653345&home=England&away=Switzerland&date=2015-09-08+18%3A45%3A00)

There has never been an under 1.5 goals score in 13 encounters between these teams, nor have we seen over 4.5 goals in the last 11 meetings. Probability suggests one of these patterns will be broken, so I'll back both under 1.5 and total goals 5.

[liam2wap]

Oh well, I'll save that one for next time. Well done to Wayne Rooney for his 50th goal for England.

[soccerpunter]

Trend is your best friend. Do not go against it. We analyze football matches to look for patterns.

[liam2wap]

Trend is your best friend. Do not go against it. We analyze football matches to look for patterns.
My view is it's a bit more complex than that. Some trends are rarely broken, and aren't worth betting against even if in normal probability terms they are long overdue, like San Marino always losing for example. I call these perma-trends. Other trends are more cyclical in nature, and will usually end with the law of averages balancing things out at a reasonably predictable stage. So a necessity for skill in predicting is to have an instinct for what type of trend we're looking at. On this, it seems I need to still work on improving in order to filter out the bets that might be more trouble than they're worth.

What we have to remember about football is it's a hybrid of random chance combined with the relative skills and styles of the teams involved. So factors associated with randomness will always be involved, but we have to adjust our expectations of how those factors will impact the result based on what we know about the teams. For example, yesterday Dortmund were playing again and though they are long overdue to get a draw, I knew from their form they were also likely to beat St Pauli and so I went for double chance instead. I need to bet with that clarity more.